Kenya hit global headlines earlier in 2024 when an unprecedented youth rebellion shook the government of William Ruto. Unprecedented is a worthy description for this event in a country once renowned as one of the most stable in the world – let alone in the region of East Africa. This stability was promising enough that Kenya became a major non-NATO ally of the United States this year (ironically, mere days before this rebellion began).
Kenya is an oligarch’s dream when it comes to inequality. Oxfam reports that the wealthiest 0.1 percent of the population have more wealth than the bottom 99.9 percent combined. Official estimates of Kenya’s youth unemployment sits around 13 percent for those actively seeking work; including the long-term unemployed, the number rises significantly, in a country where 59 percent of the population are below the age of 24.[1] This volatile and grinding reality makes it little wonder that youth revolted in their hundreds of thousands. Yet this rebellion took both the Kenyan rulers and the commentariat by surprise.
Kenya may be remembered among progressive people as a country with a radical anti-colonial history, owing a lot to the Mau Mau Revolt of the 1950s. Since then, it has been a sinkhole for radical politics. The early radical leaders were either absorbed into the ruling elite, or assassinated. It was not until the 1990s that a mass campaign broke through, demanding multi-party elections and the opening of democratic spaces. The movement won, and the “stability” of Kenya’s politics returned. How and why have Kenya’s rulers managed to keep such a rotten state of affairs without trouble from below?
To explain this, Ezra, central committee member of the Revolutionary Socialist League in Kenya, sat down with Marxist Left Review to discuss the recent period of politics in Kenya. Ezra describes how the contours of politics today were shaped decades ago, and how the youth rebellion has ultimately disrupted that status quo.
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Matt: In 1992 Kenya moved away from the system of one-party rule that had seen the Kenya African National Union (KANU) ruthlessly control the country for decades. Why did this transition to multi-party elections occur, and what were the limits of democratisation?
Ezra: Kenya got independence in the 1960s, 1963 to be exact. The first president after independence was [Jomo] Kenyatta. He ruled the country as a puppet of the British and it was just a neocolonial government. In 1978 [Daniel Arap] Moi took over and he followed in the footsteps of President Kenyatta. Moi unleashed a wave of repression in 1982 after there was an unsuccessful military coup against him by some sections of the Kenyan Air Force.
It is in this context that the single-party state was introduced, along with rampant repression. Around this time neoliberal policies were also being enforced in the country.
So Kenya was a one-party totalitarian state in the 1980s until the formation of the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD) Kenya and the emergence of underground youth leaders, student voices and some left forces that came together to fight for the multi-party state in Kenya. We call this struggle for democracy the second liberation of the country.
In terms of the leaders of the movement, most of them are now leading politicians in Kenya. There have been attempts by some people to whitewash the history of the democracy movement and argue that the movement was mostly revolutionary. However only a very small percentage of those involved were actually socialist, or revolutionary. Most of them were just pro-democracy and several of them are government ministers or governors now. Raila Odinga for example, he is dubbed as the hero of the multi-party fight in Kenya, but look at him now, he is just an imperialist, together with [William] Ruto – Ruto was also an active politician in the ’90s.
It was in 1992 that multi-party rights were won: Section 2A of the Kenyan constitution, a section added by Moi in 1981 to enshrine one party rule, was repealed. This allowed people to form legal opposition political parties. The ruling party since independence had been the Kenya African National Union (KANU) and Ruto was in KANU then. You can see, he’s never been on the right side of history in Kenyan politics, he was a Moi sycophant.
Raila was in the opposition, as were several governors, like the governor in my home county of Kisumu. He was a leader of the multi-party democracy, as was the governor of Siaya. They’ve since sold out, I don’t know, they got old or something. The major factors that drove the movement were the extreme repression of the Moi regime and the introduction of neoliberal measures, increasing economic misery for most people.
Matt: It certainly seems like those two factors combined – the relationship that Kenya had to the US, and some of the debt restructuring, put pressure on allowing limited democratic rights. The other side of it is the mass movement, called Saba Saba.[2] What were the politics of the groups that organised the Saba Saba movement?
Ezra: We still celebrate Saba Saba Day, to commemorate the heroes and celebrate Kenya’s second liberation. The Saba Saba movement was made up of leaders like Kenneth Matiba, Charles Rubia, Raila Odinga, Willy Mutunga, Anyang Nyong’o and many others.[3]It was a conglomerate of professionals. With literacy levels in Kenya in the ’90s being so low, professionals, students and mainly the elites were the ones who took charge of political movements.
I am in contact with some of the activists from this movement, they talk about the underground organisation called the December 12 Movement, the DTM. DTM said they were socialist and revolutionary, and they even had study cells just like we do today and like you in Australia. You know, they were planning for a revolution and stuff like that, but they were infiltrated by government agents, and some were killed. In the end a number of them sought out asylum in Europe and America because of this.
For Saba Matia, the politics of the main groups and the leadership were not socialist, at best you could describe them as reformists. We cannot say that Raila Odinga had been a revolutionary. We can say his father [Oginga Odinga] was a little bit more radical, not a Trotskyist like us, but he was a little bit more of a socialist because he stayed true to himself until the time of his death. He championed the fight for a socialist state. However, by the beginning of Saba Matia, he was far too old to participate and was under house arrest, which he remained under until his death. For the movement the overwhelming focus of the politics was on the democratic reforms, and the revolutionaries had very little influence.
Matt: Who have been the major political players in Kenya since then?
Ezra: The main political forces in Kenya since 1990 have gone through some degree of metamorphosis but largely the players are just the same. For example, Moi used to say KANU would rule for 100 years, and many would argue today he is right, as so many of the KANU politicians of the Moi-era are still the people ruling Kenya today.
So, KANU was the main political party because it was the only legal party in the 1980s and the ’90s. So, in 1992, when multi-party was introduced, there was an election where KANU, though very unpopular, still won because the opposition was divided. They split the forces, which allowed KANU to win, and Moi to continue ruling.
In the ’90s KANU was still there. Although it was dwindling, it was still the main party alongside the National Development Party (NDP). The NDP was formed by Ralia Odinga in 1997. Ralia’s father had been the leader of Forum for the Restoration of Democracy–Kenya (FORD–Kenya), which is still one of the major political parties in Kenya. After his death, Kijana Wamalwa took over the leadership of the party and so Ralia left to form the NDP which was a liberal-democratic party. In the 1997 election Moi won by dividing the opposition again and the NDP came third.
Coming forward to 2002, the people are getting more and more sick of the Moi regime, he had ruled for 20 odd years at this point. It was in 2002 when everyone had had it. The 2002 elections were defined by everyone against Moi, and everyone turned up. I think I was around 8 years old; I can remember some of it. In 2002, Moi lost by a large margin. That was not just the end of 24 years of Moi’s rule, but the first time KANU was not running the country since independence.
Before being kicked out of power Moi had endorsed [Uhuru] Kenyatta [the son of the first President of Kenya] as his replacement. Kenyatta was still young at the time, so I think Moi just wanted him to get some exposure. Mwai Kibaki won in 2002 with the support of Raila Odinga, Charles Rubia and others who were at the forefront of the multi-party elections campaign.
Coming out of this, they formed the National Rainbow Coalition Kenya, NARC. NARC was led by Kibaki. Kijana Wamalma was made vice-president. Raila was in government under Kibaki, he was appointed the Minister of Roads.
Fast forward to 2005, we had a referendum because there was talk of a new constitution.[4]The fight over the changes to the constitution gave birth to the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).[5] Raila had fallen out with Kibaki in 2005, and he formed ODM. Raila led the campaign against the new constitutional changes and then he used the party in the election in 2007 against Kibaki’s own newly formed party, called the Party of National Union. Kibaki had ditched his own party as well that he previously ran with in 1997, called the Democratic Party. So, in 2007, Kibaki was very unpopular, but he rigged the elections because there is no way he won. Raila Odinga won the elections, everyone voted for him, but Kibaki had impunity, so Raila lost.
Following the fraudulent elections, in 2008 there was the outbreak of ethnic violence when thousands of Kenyans were killed. Raila Odinga was brought in to form a government of national unity with Kibaki. This is a common strategy of Raila across his career. He had done this with Moi in 2000 – when he was given a cabinet spot, and even elected secretary-general of KANU. He was hoping to be named as Moi’s successor, but Moi decided to pick Uhuru Kenyatta. That is when Raila decided to jump ship and ally with Kibaki.
The next milestone was in 2010, when the new constitution was brought in, which was largely about devolving power to county governments. Then in 2013, Uhuru won, and then again in 2017. Both times Uhuru was running against Raila. The 2022 election was when Ruto came to power.
So, technically, the KANU boys have been president except the years Kibaki ruled. Of course, it should be remembered that Kibaki was also in KANU earlier on, and was the vice-president under Moi’s regime at one point. Basically, everyone who has been president of Kenya has been in KANU at some point in their political career, even if they have gone on to form other parties.
Matt: What you are saying is all the political players after 1992 were the same as before the democratisation. The introduction of multi-party elections is described as this monumental change – like you were saying for a lot of people, this is like a second independence – but at the same time, everything at the top of society sounds like it just runs the same. Why do you think that that was the case?
Ezra: Well, you know in the forest, the apples don’t fall very far from the tree. You see these forces of change, or that is how they want to seem, always have the same interests. These are people who have known each other since school. For example, Kalonzo Musyoka, who was vice-president under Kibaki, and is now the leader of one of the major parties in Kenya, was a minister under Moi in the 1980s. [William] Ruto for example was in KANU for many years, joining in 1990 under Moi, until 2007, and even after leaving KANU would serve in Uhuru Kenyatta’s governments later. They are all the same players, you know, they just keep shifting goalposts, but they’re the same guys, because their interests are the same.
When it comes to political ideologies, they’re just right-wing neoliberals. Some may come out of progressive forces, but when they get any sniff of power it is just the same story every time. That’s why we are getting into this cycle. They use their relationship with imperialist powers, who tend to have influence in Kenyan politics. I think the imperialist interests usually approve of these politicians, because they know they will further their agenda in this country, so that’s why they usually are the same people since the 1980s.
Matt: Why do you think it is the case that only people in or around KANU became the beneficiaries of the movement, and the more open political field?
Ezra: In my opinion, I think the literacy rates were very low, the majority of Kenyans did not get a chance to go to school in the 1990s.[6]It was not until Kibaki came to power that primary education was made free. Basic ignorance was so widespread that it was very easy for the ruling class to fool the people. I think that’s why, you know, they could recycle the same players. The issue of illiteracy is still there, but it was on a larger scale a few decades ago. Things have shifted on that front now we have the internet, it is the information age, it is hard for politicians to lie to the people like that.
Matt: I suppose the other part of the question is that you had this big movement, with protests, strikes and riots in the 1990s, but it seems like the left didn’t become a political force out of this. Did the left play a role in the movement, and have they played one since?
Ezra: Even during the fight for multi-party democracy, there was no real left. The most radical left-wing organisation that I knew of was DTM. They were very small, with a membership of less than 100, and they were underground. You know, they couldn’t even do their activities because Moi’s regime was far more repressive than even Ruto’s. People were getting killed. DTM died down as most of them went into exile in other countries.
There are other figures who are portrayed as on the left, like James Orengo, Raila Odingas and Co.[7] All of them turned out to be right-wing. None of them were really as left as they portrayed themselves to be in the early stages. Unfortunately, Raila is still often portrayed as a social-democrat, the left-wing, pro-welfare choice in politics – none of which is true.
The most radical people did not have the same platforms that the right-wing politicians had. Moi had been very repressive to leftists during his rule. Raila Odinga’s father, Oginga Dinga was imprisoned. Mind you he was not as left as you or me, more like a bureaucratic Stalinist, but was still seen as a threat. However, they did not have the same resources as the right-wing sections of the movement and faced serious repression.
Matt: One of the other aspects of Kenyan politics that gets talked about a lot, especially internationally, is the role of ethnic or tribal based politics. There have been serious race riots following elections in the past for example. How do those politics operate and what is the importance of them in Kenyan politics?
Ezra: Tribal politics, tribalism, has been the key factor in organising among the ruling class since independence. For elections, people are galvanised, and organised according to their tribes. I was reading a paper recently about the national question in Kenya, and the truth is that the ruling class uses tribe as a barrier for people, in order to make it difficult for people to realise that the class struggle is the primary struggle that the people have.
So, tribalism has been very, very important in Kenya. Ruto is not the president because he is the best candidate, he is the president because he literally comes from one of the biggest tribes in the country, and he teamed up with the other biggest tribes in the country.[8] People vote in blocks, by their tribe, rather than according to their political ideologies like what I saw in Australia.
That is going to change, because the young generation is more aware, and you can see what happened in June, the protests were carried out by all youth of all tribes. The trajectory of politics is shifting away from tribalism. For now it is still important, but slowly by slowly it is going to die down. I know in the next election in 2027 tribe will still be a very big factor, but I think there will be voices of reason also, slowly by slowly it will be challenged.
Matt: For those who are unfamiliar with how tribal politics operates, could you explain the impact that has for activists and socialists trying to organise resistance?
Ezra: Look, it has had a demobilising impact, it is very sad, but we tend to not try and blame the individuals, as this tribal lens of politics is very much conditioned into people. For organisers like us it is hard for us to penetrate, and it was hard to get through people who had predetermined minds.
You know, some politicians could even kick babies in the streets and still get votes, they could steal billions of [Kenyan] shillings, and they still get votes. It is not really supporting politicians based on what they represent for the people. It is more like fanaticism, like how you support your football team, that’s how people support their politicians. With that kind of die-hard following, you can imagine how hard it is for people trying to organise a majority of the people when that is how they think.
Matt: For the ruling class, you were saying tribalism is a way that they can help pacify people, a divide and rule strategy. Are there also uses for tribalism within the ruling class? I have read articles that suggest that it is a way of creating patronage networks, offering jobs, and regenerating cliques of the elite.
Ezra: So, if your people are in government, you get more development funding, you get infrastructural development in your area. Your people are the first in line to get jobs. The deputy president once said the government is a shareholding entity, where the people who vote and support are the first to benefit.
So, people in areas that are perceived to be in opposition have low development rates. You can see it in the type of roads there. If one day you ever come to Kenya, you’ll see when we take a road trip, you will just realise just by looking around that this place is predominantly an opposition zone, because that’s where the good road ends.
The change in the constitution in 2010, which devolved much of the power of the federal government to the county level with there being now 47 counties. Along with this much of the corruption has also been devolved, it did not stop corruption.
Matt: Another important factor in the past has been the role of student struggles. Students were important in the battles of the 1990s. Can you give us a picture of student struggles from the 1990s to today?
Ezra: Yeah, right now the student struggle has really died down. There is a campaign that we are a part of organising currently in response to the killing of student union democracy. Ruto’s government introduced a delegate system for student union leadership, which means students literally have no say in who their leaders are, which has pacified them.
It is hard to organise a demonstration today, like we used to in the ’90s. Most of the leaders that we mentioned in the multi-party democracy fight in the ’90s were student leaders. James Orengo was from the university, most of them came from the university, even Raila Odinga was a lecturer at the University of Nairobi then. So, this thing mainly sprouted from the university. It was very radical at the university campuses. Famously even one revolutionary student leader was killed on campus, there were demonstrations and solidarity on the campuses. That is a response we do not see now.[9]
In Australia for example, you organise protests for Palestine, but that kind of activism has been taken out of the student movement in Kenya. Yet during the struggle for a multi-party system, the main source of resistance came from the student movement – which shows the importance of this struggle that we fight to rebuild today.
Matt: When we spoke last, you were saying that this was not the first time the government has attacked student unions, or student voting rights. Has this been an ongoing battle in the student movement?
Ezra: They have been trying for many years, they tried to pass the same restrictions around 2016, but people revolted, and the attacks receded. So, they chose to pass the attacks when everyone was on holiday, it was rushed through, so students could not come to school and demonstrate. It was hard before, but the fight is even harder now because there is no direct connection with student leaders and leaders are there now.
Matt: Since the struggles of the ’90s, are there issues that you find motivate young people to get politically active?
Ezra: The ’90s were a little bit different because the problems and the reasons for picketing did not limit themselves to only school matters, you know, like fees and repealing the delegate system. They transcended the problems of the nation to bad governance, to fighting for the multi-party system, all led by students. On the contrary right now, if there is any resistance, the focus stays within the school premises and student problems.
What we want to bring back is the ability for students to be the voice of change, you know, they still have their youth on their side and they’re very vocal, so they can be at the forefront in leading these demonstrations for all types of struggles.
Matt: Student activism is more campus-based and less outwardly political?
Ezra: Yes, yes, it’s just campus based. We have a lot of geopolitical issues happening, the war in Ukraine, the conflict in Palestine and you don’t find any students participating in that here. That shows the level of political awareness and political consciousness among the students. It is very low compared to the past, the government has succeeded in pacifying them.
Matt: Looking at Kenya’s ruling class today, Ruto has been trying to assert Kenya as an important player in international politics, particularly for the Western bloc. What kind of role do you see Ruto pushing for Kenya to play?
Ezra: Yeah, I think especially during Ruto’s time he has been positioning himself as the pointman of Western imperialism in sub-Saharan Africa, especially in East Africa. In the South of the continent you have South Africa, in West Africa we have Nigeria and Ghana, so he wants to position himself as, you know, the pointman for Western imperialism in the East, so he cosies up to Germany and other Western leaders. Recently Ruto visited Germany, where he talked about Kenyans being given 250,000 jobs in Germany, which was a complete lie. That’s what he does, just lies.
Most people in Kenya are not fond of Western imperialism. You know it was the IMF and their program that brought people to the streets this year. The government is just ignoring the people’s plea and looking to the West. I’d say most people want to remain neutral or maybe even favour China and Russia. As revolutionaries we know these are not the solutions. But Ruto’s big aim is to make Kenya an imperialist powerhouse in sub-Saharan Africa.
Matt: Is that what is motivating their desire to lead the UN Peacekeeping Mission in Haiti?
Ezra: Yes. We also have “peacekeeping” forces in the Congo. Kenya troops are being sent into Haiti despite the resistance from the people, you know. I think there is money involved, so that’s why they do that.
Matt: If Kenya looks to Israel as an example, it shows that can prove your importance to Western empires, you get a lot of support for whatever you want to do. Kenya is clearly a strong Western ally, and that is historically consistent. China recently has upset the dominance of the US across the continent; has that been the case at all in Kenya?
Ezra: Ruto’s regime has cosied up to the West more than the previous regimes of Kenyatta and Kibeki, who were more pro-China. Ruto was in China recently to secure some loans for some projects so he’s trying to play both sides a bit, but majority of the time he’s cosying up to the Western side. The Chinese influence in Kenya politics has been reduced since Ruto came to power.
Matt: Kenya this year has not just been in the international news for being aggressively pro-Western, but also because of a major youth rebellion. Kenya was long hailed as a very stable government in a region of the world that is known for waves of coups, rebellions and civil wars. Could you describe the impact on politics the past year of protests and resistance has had?
Ezra: The rebellion this year turned a new leaf in Kenyan politics. I think this is the biggest rebellion in the country since the 1990s, and potentially since independence. The recent wave of rebellion has had a huge impact on politics, there is a paradigm shift in the way people see politics, rejecting tribalism and some objectivity is coming into it, especially in the young generation, who are the majority of the population. I can say that the biggest impact is the death of tribal politics. Specifically, it is the beginning of the death of tribal politics, which means that progressive organisations can organise within a better political environment.
As well, people are unlearning the misleading official histories. For example, unlearning that the Kenyattas were the heroes of independence, and learning instead that they were traitors of independence. People are learning about other African countries, the struggles of the people there, which fuel rebellions like this, and link those struggles of other countries to their own. We have a more informed and engaged mass arising in Kenya because of this wave of struggle.
For revolutionaries this was so exciting to witness and participate in, to see the spirit of resistance in all Kenyans. Even though the protests did not really win, this is just the beginning. A new era in politics is shaping before our eyes.
Matt: Why do you think then it was “Gen Z”, or this round of protesters, who were able to push past some of the limits of tribal politics and unite in a rebellion?
Ezra: This youngest generation are far more educated than any generation before them, and information is far more accessible than before. This makes it harder for leaders like Ruto, whose government propaganda is just total lies. People are more capable of critical thinking about it, and fact-check his lies.
In the ’90s politicians would lie but there was only one TV station, and 80–90 percent of the population were illiterate. The age of information has really pushed through the barrier of tribalism and all political parties. That is why the younger generation is more informed and they demand better government. When they came onto the streets earlier in the year people were arguing, we do not want to just be migrants, forced to get jobs overseas, we want to change our country so we can live in Kenya, which is very encouraging.
So it is about the information that they have but also most of them have been pushed to their limits. Many of them are unemployed, where people with degrees are finding five years after graduation, even ten years after graduation, they cannot find a job. That is what we are looking at here, that is what pushes people to the limit because they have nothing else to do, but they have all the time on their hands. You can imagine so many of them being educated and unemployed for so long and the kind of tension that builds up.
Matt: That sounds like the same dynamic for struggles across the Middle East and North Africa over the past decade. Young people are given an education and skills they cannot use, and no opportunities for even a basic standard of living.
Speaking of employment and work rights, we should discuss the role labour unions have played in Kenyan politics. It is not commonly discussed, but Kenya has a history of radical unions, both in fighting for independence, or the radical unions in the port-city of Mombasa in the 1970s and ’80s, who played important roles in forming leftist organisations. Since the ushering in of multi-party democracy, what has the union movement in Kenya been doing?
Ezra: Trade unions right now are a shadow of what they were in the 1960s and ’70s, post-independence. Right now, they are just passive organisations with rich union leaders and no tangible strategy for the movement. Unions were absent in the struggle this year against the Finance Bill, there was no union that came out to support the Gen Z protests.
Last week [11 September 2024] there was a strike at the Jomo Kenyatta airport in Nairobi, led by one of the unions. The strike was in opposition to Ruto’s plan to sell the airport to an Indian company, Adani, so there were protests because this came with layoffs. The union had one meeting with the minister, just one meeting, and a few hours later after the start of the strike, the strike was called off. Maybe these union leaders were paid off or maybe they were just lied to about job security. When it comes to trade unions, they are a shadow of what it used to be, it is a terrible situation.
Matt: Is this the case for the unions over the past 20 or 30 years?
Ezra: The leaders of the three unions are the friends of the politicians, and some of them are the kingmakers of politicians.
Matt: What role do you think revolutionaries like yourselves in the Revolutionary Socialist League (RSL) have in Kenya right now?
Ezra: I think it is educating the masses now. I think that’s the main thing that we need to do, shift their understanding of politics. Left politics and socialist politics are very unpopular here. I think our main role as RSL is to get the masses, try and recruit as much as we can and create a vanguard.
Matt: Chatting to you when the protests were raging earlier in the year, you remarked on how many challenges come up trying to find, talk to, influence and recruit people in such a dynamic movement – with all its street battles, repression and various other groups. Looking back at the movement this year, what kind of role was the RSL able to play? Was the group able to grow out of this?
Ezra: In terms of the people who joined it is a mix of inspiration and despair. Some of them drop off as fast as we gain them. That is the reality of it, but I know we are generally getting stronger.
Matt: What have you seen motivating people to join your group?
Ezra: Yeah, there is a huge percentage that is interested in politics and they’re organising and seeing how we do things. For several of them who joined the group, it was like a wave, and with any slight inconvenience they dropped off. It is a mixture of both the inspiration, but also many losing hope quickly.
Matt: Is there anything else about politics in Kenya since the 1990s that is important for readers to know who are less familiar?
Ezra: I would say much as it has been a slow growth, we can see there are small improvements in democratic spaces in the country, but still, it is very slow growth. For the left movement in Kenya it is a story of decline. If we talk about the Trotskyists, we are still just as weak as we were in the 1990s. Our task is very difficult, it is like we are reinventing the wheel. We know it is difficult, but it must be done.
Matt: Regarding the weaknesses of the left in Kenya, you outlined how they struggled during the movement of the 1990s, but why has the left struggled from then until now?
Ezra: As much as there has been an increase in the democratic space, Kenya is less repressive as that it was in the ’90s. I think the left has shrunk because of this notion of a better life on the other side. There has been no firm leadership of the left since then and the ones who masquerade as leftist leaders are just there for their own benefits and not for the people. The left’s weakness is both a result of sabotage from within and conditions here are well placed for the other side, there are great conditions in Kenyan politics for right-wing people to thrive.
Matt: Any other final things you wanted to add?
Ezra: Well, there is now a light at the end of the tunnel. With young people politically shifting as I described, we have hope things will get easier for our movement going forward.
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 2023, “Economic Survey 2023”, September. https://www.knbs.or.ke/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/2023-Economic-Survey.pdf, pp.320–55.
Kimalu, Paul K et al, May 2001, “Education Indicators in Kenya”, Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis. https://repository.kippra.or.ke/handle/123456789/2872
Nantulya, Paul 2022, “Seven Takeaways from Kenya’s Consequential Election”, Africa Centre for Strategic Studies, https://africacenter.org/spotlight/seven-takeaways-from-kenyas-consequential-election/
National Council for Population and Development 2024, “State of Kenya Population Report 2024”. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OrSWvtiqhLfHEUN8KzN7TmBOwFEzGHJC/view
UNESCO Institute for Statistics 2024, “School Enrollment, tertiary (% gross) – Kenya). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.TER.ENRR?locations=KE
[1] National Council for Population and Development 2024.
[2] The name Saba Saba refers to the Swahili date the protests began in 1990. Saba means seven.
[3] This short list gives an insight into the profile of the political leaders of Saba Saba. At the time Matiba was a politician, as was Rubia. The other three were all lecturers at University of Nairobi, Odinga just having spent some years in prison. Only Willy Mutunga had radical politics, being a part of the December 12 Movement, an avowedly Marxist intellectual group.
[4] The proposed constitutional changes of 2005 were narrowly rejected for fears of increasing presidential power as well as the growing unpopularity of the Kibaki regime.
[5] The “Orange” in Orange Democratic Movement inspired by the symbol used in the referendum ballots to symbolise a “No” vote on the proposed changes. “Yes” votes were symbolised by a banana.
[6] Kenya’s adult literacy rate sat around 74 percent in 1990, which has since risen to 83 percent in 2022. The secondary school enrolment rate however sat at 29 percent in 1990, doubling to 59 percent by 2009. The last year data is available on this. In university enrolment, the divide is even starker. Only 1 percent of the population were university-educated in 1990, with a student population of about 40,000. Today it is closer to 12 percent, with over 500,000 enrolled students domestically. See Kimalu et al 2001, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 2023 and UNESCO Institute for Statistics 2024.
[7] James Orengo (b. 1951) was yet another one of Saba Matia leaders from the University of Nairobi, following a similar pattern of student activist to university lecturer. He is now Governor of Siaya County.
[8] The 2022 election saw Ruto narrowly win with 50.5 percent, to Raila Odinga’s 48.9 percent. Ruto secured a strong vote among the ethnic Kikuyu, who have predominantly been strong backers of Kikuyu ex-President Uhuru Kenyatta. Uhuru, alongside powerful figures in the Kikuyu community, had endorsed Raila – foreshadowing the breakdown in strength of ethnic-tribal based political allegiances. See Nantulya 2022.
[9] In December 1996, student activist Festus Okong’o Etaba was murdered by police while protesting the overcharging of university fees.